MSC market share hits record high, Maersk drops to 20-year low: Global container shipping market pattern accelerates differentiation

MSC's Market Share Exceeds 21.5%, Reshaping Industry Landscape

According to the latest Alphaliner weekly report, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has achieved a 21.5% share of the global container ship capacity market, setting a new all-time record for a single liner company. The previous peak was Maersk's 19.3% in 2018. MSC's market share has nearly doubled since 2010, and it is the only carrier among the global top ten to continue increasing its share this year.

In contrast, Maersk, while still holding second place globally with a 13.7% share, has seen this figure drop to its lowest level in 20 years. At the beginning of 2024, Maersk capped its fleet capacity at approximately 4.1 to 4.3 million TEU, shifting its strategic focus to integrated logistics services.

The third to fifth positions are: CMA CGM 12.5%, Cosco Shipping 10.6%, and Hapag-Lloyd 7%.

Two Distinct Growth Paths

MSC's aggressive expansion began after the pandemic in 2020. Through ordering new ships in large numbers, acquiring second-hand vessels, and launching new routes, its capacity has rapidly climbed from approximately 3.8 million TEU at the beginning of 2020 to over 7 million TEU by 2026. This 'volume-driven' strategy has not only solidified MSC's global leading position but also widened the gap with its competitors.

Maersk, on the other hand, has taken a different path: actively limiting capacity growth and improving profit margins by acquiring logistics companies and strengthening end-to-end services. However, this strategy has come at a clear cost in terms of market share—its share has steadily declined from 19.3% in 2018 to the current 13.7%.

The contrast between these two strategies actually reflects a deep division in the global liner industry between 'scale priority' and 'value priority.' MSC is betting on continued growth in container trade volumes (despite the rise of regionalization trends), while Maersk is attempting to find new profit pools in value-added supply chain services.

Global Shipping Market and Supply Chain Restructuring Signals

MSC's rise is not an isolated event. It is closely related to several major trends in the global supply chain in recent years:

• Continued strengthening of Asian export competitiveness: MSC's capacity investment on Asia-Europe and Asia-North America routes is particularly prominent, benefiting from the stable exports of manufacturing in China and Southeast Asia.
• Eastward shift of port and route network focus: MSC's deployment on Pacific and Indian Ocean routes is accelerating, resonating with the growth of intra-RCEP trade.
• Shipping alliance adjustments: The 2M alliance (MSC and Maersk) will end in 2025, and MSC is building a more flexible service network on its own, which will further alter the competitive structure of the main east-west trade routes.

At the same time, Maersk's shrinking share also suggests: against the backdrop of freight rates returning to normal, relying solely on value-added services may not be enough to withstand the scale cost advantages of large shipping companies.## Long-term Trend: Intensified Concentration and Regional Challenges

The world's top five liner companies collectively control over 65% of global capacity, with market concentration reaching historically high levels. MSC alone accounts for more than one-fifth of the market—a proportion almost unimaginable a decade ago.

However, concentration does not equate to market stability. Geopolitical risks (such as the Red Sea crisis and the Strait of Hormuz situation), new carbon emission regulations (EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime), and the evolution of regional trade agreements (CPTPP, AfCFTA) may all reshape route profitability models. MSC leverages its massive fleet size to achieve economies of scale, but it also faces vulnerabilities such as reliance on single markets and rising compliance costs.

Conclusion: Container Shipping Enters a "Dual-Track Era"

In the coming years, the global liner market may feature a "dual-track" pattern: one track is MSC-led "capacity-driven" growth, continuously expanding market share and capturing cargo volumes through direct service networks; the other track is the "integrated logistics" path attempted by Maersk, CMA CGM, and others, downplaying their role as pure ocean carriers and shifting toward supply chain management platforms.

Regardless of the path, the shipping industry is no longer a simple "porter." Changes in capacity share are only the surface; underlying it is an industrial restructuring driven by global manufacturing layouts, trade policies, and digital technology. For shippers, ports, and investors, understanding this divergence is more strategically significant than simply focusing on market share figures.