The Shadow of Supply Chains in Global Economic Imbalance: Trade Restructuring from a G7 Perspective

The Unbalanced Triangle: Structural Fault Lines in Global Trade

When French President Macron placed global economic imbalances at the top of the G7 summit agenda, he was highlighting not just deviations in macroeconomic data, but a deep misalignment in the supply chain system as globalization enters a new phase. The "unbalanced triangle" formed by China's record current account surplus, the United States' persistent current account deficit, and Europe's surplus trapped by insufficient investment is reshaping the underlying logic of international trade.

China: Overconcentration of Supply Chains Behind the Export Engine

In 2025, China's current account surplus surged to $735 billion, far exceeding the peak before the 2008 financial crisis. The core logic driving this growth is not simply demand-pull, but the extreme efficiency of China's manufacturing system in the post-pandemic era combined with weak domestic consumption. Large-scale policy subsidies, a complete industrial ecosystem, and infrastructure advantages have made China the "super factory" of global supply chains—but this overconcentrated model is creating systemic risks.

From a supply chain security perspective, a single country bearing nearly 30% of global manufacturing value-added means that any geopolitical friction or natural disaster could lead to the disruption of key intermediate goods. U.S. tariff increases have failed to effectively reverse this pattern, instead accelerating companies' "China+1" diversification strategies. However, alternative production capacity in Southeast Asia and India will struggle to challenge China's scale effects in the short term.

The United States: Fragile Balance Between Consumption-Driven Growth and Debt Dependence

The U.S. current account deficit accounts for about 2.4% of GDP, and its role as the world's ultimate consumer market remains unchanged. This "consumption-import" model relies on continued inflows of foreign capital to purchase assets such as U.S. Treasuries, forming a closed loop of "the U.S. spends, Asia produces, and capital returns." However, the stability of this cycle is being challenged: U.S. industrial policies (e.g., the CHIPS Act) aim to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity, but in the short term they may instead raise import costs; meanwhile, the use of tariff tools is accelerating trade partners' diversification of settlement systems, eroding the foundation of the dollar cycle.

Europe: Investment Hollowing Out Behind the Surplus

The causes of Europe's current account surplus are entirely different from those of China. According to a report by former ECB President Draghi, Europe's surplus stems from excess corporate savings and insufficient domestic investment—especially in the technology sector. This means that Europe is gradually losing its technology-driven value-added links in the global supply chain, relying more on traditional manufacturing and financial exports. If this trend does not change, Europe risks becoming a "high-end parts supplier" rather than an industrial leader on par with China and the United States.

Supply Chain Restructuring: How Imbalances Give Rise to New Routes?

• G7 finance ministers warned that without coordinated action, imbalances may lead to a "forced correction" in the form of a financial crisis. This warning directly points to the vulnerable nodes in the supply chain system:- Commodity flows: As the world's largest consumer of raw materials, China's accumulation of surpluses implies sustained demand for resource imports, which will drive up shipping costs and the risk of port congestion.
• Regionalization trend: The imbalance intensifies the political momentum behind "friend-shoring," and the competition between RCEP and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is essentially a struggle for control over supply chains.
• Logistics costs: A long-term mismatch in trade flows will increase the empty container rate, adding to inefficiency costs in the global shipping network.

Conclusion: Coordination or Decoupling?

The G7's concerns are essentially a twilight signal of the old globalization model—the equilibrium of excessive consumption in the US, overproduction in China, and oversaving in Europe is no longer sustainable. Future supply chains will place greater emphasis on resilience rather than efficiency, and regionalized production systems may replace simple scale expansion. For participants in international trade, understanding these structural imbalances and adjusting their strategies is more critical than focusing on short-term tariff fluctuations.